In 2023 TV shipments may fall by 2.8%, but the OLED segment will grow

High inflation and the Ukrainian events will remain the key factors that have a negative impact on the entire global economy – this, in particular, will affect consumer demand and cause a drop in TV sales. As a result, the supply of TV panels in 2023 will decrease by 2.8% and amount to 264 million units, TrendForce analysts are sure.

World deliveries of TV panels in 2019–2023, thousand units. Image source: trendforce.com

The shipment figures for LCD and OLED panels will differ dramatically. In 2022, South Korean manufacturers have already begun to withdraw from the LCD panel market, shifting their focus to OLED. Moreover, Samsung Electronics is now actively introducing QD OLED TV panels, and in 2023, their shipments will grow by 26.5%, contributing to the overall OLED segment – its growth will be 7.8%, and the penetration rate of OLED panels in the TV market will reach 3.1%.

In contrast, LCD panel performance will be hit by a weakening global economy as the segment has already peaked, with LCD TV shipments down 3.1% in 2023 to 256 million things. Despite conservative demand forecasts, the current market situation is favorable for manufacturers who are ready to step up the promotion of large-format panels. Freight rates have come down to manageable levels, and the average screen size on LCD TVs is set to rise by 1.5 inches in 2023 to almost 50 inches.

Distribution of TV LCD panel shipments by country in 2022 and 2023

Chinese LCD panel manufacturers with huge production capacity will remain highly competitive and increase their combined global market share to 70.4% in 2023. The top three will not change here – BOE, CSOT and HKC will retain their positions. The shares of Taiwanese Innolux and AUO will be 14.1% and 5.2%, respectively. LG Display will reduce its share to 4.6% after the company produced the last batch of LCD panels at its P7 plant in South Korea last December. As for Sharp, the demand for the products of its factories in Japan is declining, while the company in Guangzhou, China, on the contrary, began to increase the production of new products – as a result, the company’s share in 2023 will be 5.7%.

Finally, analysts warn that in 2023 the risk of a supply-demand imbalance in the monitor panels segment will be higher than in the TV segment, as a result, manufacturers may shift their focus to the latter direction. This, in turn, will have an impact on the dynamics of supply and demand in the segment of television panels. Finally, producers will be forced to return to a surplus business model by adjusting the capacity utilization factor. Otherwise, the entire panel market in 2023 risks never returning to a balanced state.